Estimating Required Contingency Funds for Construction Projects using Multiple Linear Regression

Cost overruns are a critical problem for construction projects. The common practice for dealing with cost overruns is the assignment of an arbitrary flat percentage of the construction budget as a contingency fund. This research seeks to identify significant factors that may influence, or serve as indicators of, potential cost overruns. The study uses data on 243 construction projects over a full range of project types and scopes gathered from an existing United States Air Force construction database. The author uses multiple linear regression to analyze the data and compares the proposed model to the common practice of assigning contingency funds. The multiple linear regression model provides better predictions of actual cost overruns experienced. Based on the performance metric used, the model sufficiently captures 44% of actual cost overruns versus current practices capturing only 20%. The proposed model developed in this study only uses data that would be available prior to the award of a construction contract. This allows the model to serve as a planning tool throughout the concept and design phases. The model includes project characteristics, design performance metrics, and contract award process influences. This research supports prior findings of a relationship between design funding and design performance as well as the influence of the contract award process on cost overruns. While the proposed model captures 44% of actual cost overruns, its application reduces average contingency budgeting error from -11.2% to only -0.3% over the entire test sample

A reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere—ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Niño indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections

Impacts of an extreme cyclone event on landscape-scale savanna fire, productivity and greenhouse gas emissions

North Australian tropical savanna accounts for 12% of the world\u27s total savanna land cover. Accordingly, understanding processes that govern carbon, water and energy exchange within this biome is critical to global carbon and water budgeting. Climate and disturbances drive ecosystem carbon dynamics. Savanna ecosystems of the coastal and sub-coastal of north Australia experience a unique combination of climatic extremes and are in a state of near constant disturbance from fire events (1 in 3 years), storms resulting in windthrow (1 in 5–10 years) and mega-cyclones (1 in 500–1000 years). Critically, these disturbances occur over large areas creating a spatial and temporal mosaic of carbon sources and sinks. We quantify the impact on gross primary productivity (GPP) and fire occurrence from a tropical mega-cyclone, tropical Cyclone Monica (TC Monica), which affected 10 400 km2 of savanna across north Australia, resulting in the mortality and severe structural damage to ~140 million trees. We estimate a net carbon equivalent emission of 43 Tg of CO2-e using the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) GPP (MOD17A2) to quantify spatial and temporal patterns pre- and post-TC Monica. GPP was suppressed for four years after the event, equivalent to a loss of GPP of 0.5 Tg C over this period. On-ground fuel loads were estimated to potentially release 51.2 Mt CO2-e, equivalent to ~10% of Australia\u27s accountable greenhouse gas emissions. We present a simple carbon balance to examine the relative importance of frequency versus impact for a number of key disturbance processes such as fire, termite consumption and intense but infrequent mega-cyclones. Our estimates suggested that fire and termite consumption had a larger impact on Net Biome Productivity than infrequent mega-cyclones. We demonstrate the importance of understanding how climate variability and disturbance impacts savanna dynamics in the context of the increasing interest in using savanna landscapes for enhanced carbon sinks in emission offset schemes

Circular orbits and spin in black-hole initial data

The construction of initial data for black-hole binaries usually involves the choice of free parameters that define the spins of the black holes and essentially the eccentricity of the orbit. Such parameters must be chosen carefully to yield initial data with the desired physical properties. In this paper, we examine these choices in detail for the quasiequilibrium method coupled to apparent-horizon/quasiequilibrium boundary conditions. First, we compare two independent criteria for choosing the orbital frequency, the "Komar-mass condition" and the "effective-potential method," and find excellent agreement. Second, we implement quasi-local measures of the spin of the individual holes, calibrate these with corotating binaries, and revisit the construction of non-spinning black hole binaries. Higher-order effects, beyond those considered in earlier work, turn out to be important. Without those, supposedly non-spinning black holes have appreciable quasi-local spin; furthermore, the Komar-mass condition and effective potential method agree only when these higher-order effects are taken into account. We compute a new sequence of quasi-circular orbits for non-spinning black-hole binaries, and determine the innermost stable circular orbit of this sequence.Comment: 24 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review D, revtex4; Fixed error in computing proper separation and updated figures and tables accordingly, added reference to Sec. IV.A, fixed minor error in Sec. IV.B, added new data to Tables IV and V, fixed 1 reference, fixed error in Eq. (A7b), included minor changes from PRD editin

Determination of free desmosine and isodesmosine as urinary biomarkers of lung disorder by ultra performance liquid chromatography-ion mobility-mass spectrometry

The elastin degradation products, desmosine (DES) and isodesmosine (IDES) are highly stable, cross-linking amino-acids that are unique to mature elastin. The excretion of DES/IDES in urine, in the free form and with associated peptide fragments, provides an indicator of lung damage in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A quantitative ion mobility-mass spectrometry (IM-MS) method has been developed for the analysis of free DES/IDES in urine with deuterated IDES as an internal standard. Resolution of DES/IDES isomers was achieved in less than five minutes using ultra performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) combined with ion pairing. The optimized UPLC-IM-MS method provided a linear dynamic range of 10-300 ng/mL and a limit of quantitation of 0.028 ng/mL for IDES and 0.03 ng/mL for DES (0.55 ng and 0.61 ng on column respectively). The method reproducibility (%RSD) was < 4% for DES and IDES. The UPLC-IM-MS method was applied to the analysis of urine samples obtained from healthy volunteers and COPD patients. The DES/IDES concentrations in healthy and COPD urine showed an increase in DES (79%) and IDES (74%) in the COPD samples, relative to healthy controls. The incorporation of an IM separation prior to m/z measurement by MS was shown to reduce non-target ion responses from the bio-fluid matrix

Oceanic and radiative forcing of medieval megadroughts in the American southwest

Multidecadal “megadroughts” were a notable feature of the climate of the American Southwest over the Common era, yet we still lack a comprehensive theory for what caused these megadroughts and why they curiously only occurred before about 1600 CE. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) excursions in conjunction with anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs and a locally positive radiative forcing. This assessment of past megadroughts provides the first comprehensive theory for the causes of megadroughts and their clustering particularly during the Medieval era. This work also provides the first paleoclimatic support for the prediction that the risk of American Southwest megadroughts will markedly increase with global warming

Chalcogen Impact on Covalency within Molecular [Cu\u3csub\u3e3\u3c/sub\u3e(μ\u3csub\u3e3\u3c/sub\u3e-E)]\u3csup\u3e3+\u3c/sup\u3e Clusters (E = O, S, Se): A Synthetic, Spectroscopic, and Computational Study

Reaction of the tricopper(I)-dinitrogen tris(β-diketiminate) cyclophane, Cu3(N2)L, with O-atom-transfer reagents or elemental Se affords the oxido-bridged tricopper complex Cu3(μ3-O)L (2) or the corresponding Cu3(μ3-Se)L (4), respectively. For 2 and 4, incorporation of the bridging chalcogen donor was supported by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry and K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) data. Cu L2,3-edge X-ray absorption data quantify 49.5% Cu 3d character in the lowest unoccupied molecular orbital of 2, with Cu 3d participation decreasing to 33.0% in 4 and 40.8% in the related sulfide cluster Cu3(μ3-S)L (3). Multiedge XAS and UV/visible/near-IR spectra are employed to benchmark density functional theory calculations, which describe the copper-chalcogen interactions as highly covalent across the series of [Cu3(μ-E)]3+ clusters. This result highlights that the metal-ligand covalency is not reserved for more formally oxidized metal centers (i.e., CuIII + O2- vs CuII + O-) but rather is a significant contributor even at more typical ligand-field cases (i.e., Cu3II/II/I + E2-). This bonding is reminiscent of that observed in p-block elements rather than in early-transition-metal complexes